Arsenal’s November Woes Explained – It’s All Your Fault

What a difference a number makes. Change a 1 to a 2 and all is right in the world.

So November 2016 has been and gone, October was the month of the tabloids saying how The Arsenal always fail in the four week run up to December and December will be the month of the tabloids jingoistically reporting how all the EPL foreign managers miss their winter breaks back in Spain/Italy/Germany.

November Sucks

But how did November 2016 fair and are our November blues all just tabloid click-bait bullshit.

Well let’s see…….
November 2016 – (excluding Milk Cup ties)
Played 5; Won 2; Drawn 3; Lost -; Goals for/against 10/7; Points 9/15, Ave 1.8

November results table

Now over the previous 19 seasons UW (Under Wenger) our November average points per game tally has been 1.6.
When you compare that to the rest of the season;
Sept/October average points per match 2.15
August / Dec to May ave 2.05,
It shows that Novembers are pretty pants at Highbury / The Emirates to say the least

But Why?
I could reel out a number of factors that stuff up November in N5;
UCL double header: these games are must win whether against the top or bottom sides of the group.
Interlull: There is always a bloody international break in November, which kills any momentum.
Big EPl games: for some reason The Arsenal always seem to get at least one or two top four games in the merry month of November.

And yes, these factors could be applied to all EPL/UCL chasing teams in England, so why does The Arsenal get affected more?

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I personally put it down to one thing; Argumentum ad populum
Loose translation; If you say it enough, it becomes true.

Early in Wenger’s Arsenal tenure, the first few Novembers were poor, the media picked up on this, ran with it as a headline for the next few seasons and so….
The players believed it, the fans believed.
They were told to believe that November will be crap and so it became that November is crap.

Argumentum ad populum

So please players, fans, media hacks, everyone:
Don’t believe the hype, it’s just a month.

Don't believe the hype

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2 Responses to Arsenal’s November Woes Explained – It’s All Your Fault

  1. Ric S Ade-Alao December 6, 2016 at 2:24 pm #

    Partially right maybe, but with the fact that until now squad was full of reserves of youth team players, couple with whatever effects the weather and many games inflicted on players, either injuries or exhaustion. Those problems were never addressed sufficiently. So you believe what was reality.

  2. Victor Thompson December 21, 2016 at 2:10 pm #

    Sorry Steve but if you looked at the league placing end of October and look at it now, you may want to rinse your face in cold water, take a walk and have a smoke if you do smoke; but when you come back and look at it again, it hasn`t gone away! Chelsea, who we beat 3-0 in September are still nine points clear.

    Something happened in the in between which the fans had no control over. What is more, no matter how you juggle the statistics, it is something we have seen on a regular basis. There are statistics and there are damned statistics ( as the man said ) but then there are facts. Over a season the schedule evens itself out and all teams have hard sections, and then they have easier ones, but the repeating fact that is certain is that we will finish somewhere in the top 4. Good enough to qualify for the EPL but not good enough to qualify for the semi finals and more often, not good enough for the knockouts.

    We are going to qualify 3rd or 4th unless we improve dramatically and we did that with a weaker squad and when Chelsea Utd. and City were all struggling. This year, we have a bigger squad and according to wenger, the best first 11 since 2004. Chelsea are benefitting from having no EPL to contend with but City are without 5 top players, particularly Aguero. A 33 year old who can hardly muster a run was able to dominate our midfield whilst jogging on the spot.

    Can statistics explain that?

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