Arsenal look good value at 2.6 with Boylesports to beat Man City at the Emirates this weekend and realistically put an end to any hopes they have of lifting the title.
The stats certainly suggest that at the odds on offer the Gunners are overpriced.
City have failed failed to score in three of their last four Premier League games against Arsenal and each of their last four visits to the Emirates.
They have also won none of their last 26 away league games against the Gunners (W0 D8 L18), and come into the game on the back of disappointing draws against Stoke and Sunderland.
Roberto Mancini’s men seem to be running out of steam, whereas Arsenal had been on red-hot run before their 2-1 defeat at QPR.
Arsene Wenger’s men have won 11 and lost one of their last 14 PL games on their own patch and that makes them look a big price considering City’s current form.
One player who will be hoping to find the back of the net is Robin van Persie, as City are one of only three teams in the top flight that he has not scored against this season.
If he does manage to bag one in this then he will become only the fourth player to score against 17 different teams in a Premier League season (after Cole 1993/94, Shearer 1994/95 and Wright 1996/97).
The Dutchman is a 5 chance with Boylesports and Paddy Power to score first, and 2.2 with the former to net anytime and looks worth a wager in both those markets in what is likely to be a hard fought and fiery encounter.
The last three league games between the two sides have produced three red cards, and with the stakes high it would be no surprise if there was another.
However, providing that Arsenal can keep their heads I can see them coming out on top and for those that like to play in the correct score market I like the look of a 2-1 win at 9.5 with Betfred.